Investment Publications Highlights: First Quarter 2019
First quarter’s edition summarizes five articles on the varying role volatility plays in the investment process.
Equities
Should Investors Chase the Rally in China A-Shares?
Yes, but only if you can tolerate the volatility.
Emerging Markets Equity Manager Performance: 2018
More than 63% of active emerging markets equity managers underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gross of fees in 2018, marking the third consecutive year of underperformance. This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database. This is a companion piece to the US, global ex US, and global equity manager performance chart books already published.
Brexit’s Crescendo and UK Investors: Tuning Out the Noise
Though developments and headlines associated with the UK’s Article 50 negotiations with the EU to exit the trading bloc have been fitful, their impact thus far on the underlying fundamentals of the UK economy and sterling-denominated assets, particularly UK equities, has been moderate. Because Brexit is a political process with two-way tail risks, it warrants close monitoring but is not a good foundation for a tactical investment position By the same token, UK investors should avoid factoring in expectations of specific potential Brexit outcomes into strategic decisions regarding currency exposures.
The Case for Dedicated China Exposure
While we have advised a gradual approach to investing in China, today we believe that investors should take a systematic and comprehensive approach, overweighting Chinese assets relative to their index weights. Looking past the uncertainty and negativity, investors will find a large investment opportunity set, a robust universe of public and private managers, and appealing public equity valuations.
Global Equity Manager Performance: 2018
In 2018, 52% of active global managers underperformed the MSCI World Index gross of fees, with the median manager underperforming by 20 basis points. This marked a reversal from active managers’ strong outperformance in 2017. This is a companion piece to the US and global ex US equity manager performance chart books already published.
Decades of Data: 1900–2018
In over 40 different analyses and 100 charts, our annual report on the history of global markets provides context for the range of returns investors can expect from equities, bonds, and cash; reveals the importance of various components of equity returns; examines the evidence for equity mean reversion; and reviews the relationship between initial valuations and subsequent returns for equities and bonds. Given the stage of the economic cycle and a shifting paradigm in central bank policy, we incorporate a current market environment section this year. The appendix to this report shows year-by-year, cumulative, and average annual compound returns for as much as 119 years of market data for Australia, Japan, the UK, and the US. Emerging markets equity returns are also included in the appendix—with 30 years of history—in USD and local currency terms.
Global ex US Equity Manager Performance: 2018
In 2018, 62.1% of active global ex US managers underperformed the MSCI EAFE Index gross of fees, with the median manager underperforming by 123 basis points. Since 2000, the median manager has now underperformed the index in just three calendar years, and 2018 marks the first year of underperformance since 2004. This is a companion piece to the US manager performance chart book already published.
US Mid- to Large-Cap Equity Manager Performance: 2018
For the fifth straight year, the majority of active mid- to large-cap managers underperformed in 2018, with 61.1% underperforming (gross of fees) in 2018. The median manager underperformed the Russell 1000® Index by 136 basis points for the year. This chart book is our annual summary of the absolute and relative performance of managers that report to our database.
Should Investors Fret About Declining Earnings Estimates?
Geopolitical tensions and growth concerns loom large over the global economy, but we don’t think investors should fixate on the recent slowdown in near-term earnings expectations.