NAFTA–Bracing for a Downturn

NAFTA tied Canadian and Mexican markets to the U.S. Business cycles and integration have converged. Correlations of returns are increasing as Mexico and Canada shift from natural resources and energy to developed financial sectors and information technology. This convergence puts both economies at risk when faced with a stalling American economy. Trade spurred growth and now lagging trade may cause a reverse wealth effect. The correlations of both Canada and Mexico with the U.S. are highly volatile, suggesting they are not permanent. Sector investing offers some golden opportunities for diversification.