The Economy, Not Kevin Warsh, Will Drive Fed Policy
Kevin Warsh became chair of the Federal Reserve on May 15. His appointment is unlikely to drive a major near-term policy shift.
Authored by: TJ Scavone
US Private Families Should Revisit How Munis Fit Within a Broader Diversification Strategy
We believe US private families should continue to anchor the portion of the portfolio intended to diversify equity risk with munis, while being more selective about allocations to cash, Treasuries, and other taxable fixed income, given the shift in after-tax trade-offs.
The Iran War: Impact on Energy, Inflation, and Markets
The war in Iran has triggered a historic disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, driving oil & gas prices higher and exposing vulnerable energy-importing regions. This shock is fueling concerns over higher inflation and rising bond yields, creating a volatile environment where commodities lead while global equities and traditional bond diversifiers underperform.
Will the Trump Administration’s Affordability Policies Jump-Start the US Residential Real Estate Sector?
No. The proposed policies are unlikely to swiftly resolve the challenges facing US residential real estate.
2026 Outlook: Fixed Income Views
A disciplined, quality-focused approach across fixed income and private credit can help position portfolios for balanced risk-adjusted returns in a challenging environment in 2026.
Weathering the Latest US Government Shutdown
Historically, shutdowns have been short-lived and have had negligible economic and market impact. As such, well-diversified investors need not take specific portfolio action in response.
Is the Projected Path of Fed Easing Too Aggressive?
Yes. Current market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower its policy rate by roughly 150 basis points by the end of next year are overly optimistic.
Heightened Inflation Risks Favor Building More Resilient Portfolios
Description: In today’s environment, building resilient portfolios is essential. Inflation risks are elevated and macroeconomic uncertainty is high. Allocating capital to hedge macro risks may reduce returns, so investors should carefully consider risk tolerance, objectives, and spending needs when assessing their allocations.
Do Fiscal Concerns Undermine the Role of US Treasury Securities as Core Portfolio Diversifiers?
No. US Treasury securities are likely to remain among the most effective diversifiers during periods of equity market stress.
Will the Fed Cut Rates to Rescue Financial Markets?
No, we do not think the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the near term to rescue financial markets. However, if tariffs begin to significantly impact the real economy, the Fed will eventually act.