Within public equities, investors should modestly overweight global ex US equities, developed markets small-cap stocks, and Latin American equities in 2026, as these regions offer attractive valuations, improving growth prospects, and diversification benefits.
Long-dated government bonds have come under pressure in recent months, but markets are not beginning to price in a fiscal crisis in our view. Drawing on market data and institutional trends, we believe they will continue to behave defensively during deflationary shocks.
Given the fluidity of the situation in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding how events may unfold, we believe most investors should not make changes to portfolios in response to this event.
After a prolonged period of US outperformance, many investment portfolios have become heavily concentrated in US equities, but recent policy shifts now challenge US economic and financial hegemony. Investors should carefully evaluate these exposures to determine if greater diversification is warranted.
Yes, in response to weak growth and a changing defence landscape, taking off the fiscal straitjacket should catalyse a more growth-supportive economic environment within Europe.
No. All three factors have weighed on euro area equity and currency markets to some extent in recent months, but we recommend continuing to hold euro area equities at benchmark weights.
We expect developed markets value and small-cap equities to outperform, given our economic views and their steep valuation discounts. Regionally, we believe US equity performance will not match the level set in 2024, allowing European, Japanese, and emerging markets equities to perform more in line with broader developed markets. Within emerging markets, strong Indian equity gains should moderate, while we doubt Chinese equities will collapse. At the same time, we expect long/short equity strategies will perform better than typical.
We expect liquid credit returns to decline due to low credit spreads and anticipated Fed easing. Direct lending returns should moderate but continue to outperform their liquid counterparts. Meanwhile, insurance-linked securities will continue to benefit from strong demand, and increased transaction volumes should support both specialty finance and credit opportunities managers. In emerging markets, currencies should become a tailwind for local bonds.
No, we do not expect Japanese mid-/large-cap equities to outperform their global peers despite some supportive factors, such as Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) reforms and inflows from security investment schemes.
Markets have been jittery as the US presidential election approaches. The macro backdrop is shifting, with slowing economic growth and ebbing inflation meaning a cycle of monetary easing beckons. At the same time, elevated valuations for a variety of assets are causing investors to reconsider narratives around themes, such as AI investment, and consider asset allocation tweaks. Investors should resist positioning portfolios for any one political outcome and remember that increased market volatility around elections is common. In the following report, we discuss our views on five common election-related narratives in the marketplace today.