After a difficult 2013 that saw significant volatility in the real and Brazil identified as one of the Fragile Five, Brazilian markets have roared back in 2014, with the MSCI Brazil notching a 19% gain through August 31 (25% for unhedged, US$-based investors, as the real found its footing, rising 5% versus the dollar). Local…
Even as the European Central Bank worries about deflation, the United States has recently seen some hints of inflationary pressures. In recent weeks, a variety of inflation metrics have indicated that consumer prices rose sharply in April, surpassing consensus forecasts. Few investors can claim a distinguished record of successfully forecasting inflation—and we’re not about to…
Beginning May 30, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with a combined weighting totaling about one-third of the MSCI Frontier Markets 100 Index, will graduate to MSCI’s emerging markets indexes. This transition will require frontier index funds to sell down their holdings of the countries’ 22 stocks and to buy larger stakes of the…
We maintain our neutral positioning for municipal bonds As prices fell and yields rose in the latter half of 2013, investors pulled money from muni bond funds, forcing managers to sell bonds in an increasingly illiquid market. Conditions reversed around year-end into 2014 as Treasury yields have fallen, money began flowing in, and issuance plummeted….
Grain demand from the emerging world is likely to persist, although given rich land prices in some regions, investors should proceed carefully in this developing asset class.
Looking ahead to 2014 we are focused on several key themes, among them the evolution of global monetary policy, the likelihood of European equities exceeding diminished expectations, and the headwinds, risks, and opportunities associated with emerging markets equities.
Executive Summary Many families have significant wealth tied up in the publicly traded shares of a single firm. Concentrated exposure to a single stock—often the family’s original source of wealth—represents a significant risk to the family’s wealth and its future spending and charitable-gifting power. Single stocks, on average, are about 68% more volatile than a…
A mid-year update on our views, focusing on the macroeconomic factors that impact short-term market moves and the valuations that influence long-run results.
Mid-year update on the challenging macroeconomic environment and our portfolio advice.
Rich spot prices, combined with unhelpful collateral and roll yields, are a recipe for disappointing commodity returns; natural resources equities are more attractive.