Market Matters: November 30, 2024
Global equities advanced as performance diverged among regions. US stocks surged to new all-time highs, whereas developed markets (DM) ex US peers lagged, and emerging markets (EM) shares declined.
Authored by: Sean Duffin
US Election Anxiety: Keeping Calm Amid Political Uncertainty
Markets have been jittery as the US presidential election approaches. The macro backdrop is shifting, with slowing economic growth and ebbing inflation meaning a cycle of monetary easing beckons. At the same time, elevated valuations for a variety of assets are causing investors to reconsider narratives around themes, such as AI investment, and consider asset allocation tweaks. Investors should resist positioning portfolios for any one political outcome and remember that increased market volatility around elections is common. In the following report, we discuss our views on five common election-related narratives in the marketplace today.
Market Matters: July 31, 2024
Global equities advanced in July, with performance characterized by a rotation away from large-cap growth stocks in favor of small caps and value.
Should Investors Chase the Bitcoin and Gold Rallies?
No. While recent developments may be a sign that bitcoin is gaining credibility, it remains a highly speculative investment that offers no cash flows.
Super Tuesday Kicks 2024 US Election Cycle into Full Swing
Today many US states are concurrently holding primaries, which are critical for presidential hopefuls to secure delegates.
2024 Outlook: Public Equities
We expect global equity performance will be below its long-term median level, but we believe investors should hold equity allocations in line with policy targets. Within equities, we see opportunities in developed value, developed small caps, and China. We doubt European and emerging markets ex China equities will outperform, and we believe the share of active strategies that outperform will increase.
2024 Outlook: Currencies
We expect the US dollar and gold will more or less hold their values, given our economic expectation and the many geopolitical risks. We believe the yen will appreciate, and we expect the thawing crypto winter will fully transition to a spring.
Israel-Hamas War Highlights the Importance of Diversification
The devastating loss of life resulting from Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel is at the forefront of our concerns. Risk of a prolonged conflict in the region has grown, creating a new layer of uncertainty on many fronts, including the global economy and markets.
Does the Recent Rally in AI-Linked Growth Stocks Mean Value Is Doomed?
No. While the exciting developments in artificial intelligence (AI) have been a bright spot for equity markets this year, we do not think value will continue to lag growth. In fact, we expect it will outperform over the next several years.
Should Investors Continue to Overweight US Small Caps Despite Recent Banking Sector Stress and Growing Recession Fears?
Yes, investors should overweight US small-cap stocks, given valuations remain attractive and will provide a cushion if an expected recession unfolds.